Full Text Available
Note: Clicking the button above will open the full text document at the original institutional repository in a new window.
The effect of monetary policy on South Africa’s housing market : a Bayesian SVAR approach
Thesis (MCom)--Stellenbosch University, 2025.
Saved in:
| Main Author: | |
|---|---|
| Other Authors: | |
| Format: | Thesis |
| Published: |
Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University
2026
|
| Subjects: | |
| Tags: |
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1867613878023618560 |
|---|---|
| access_status_str | Open Access |
| author | Paleker, Riaz |
| author2 | Van Lill, Dawie |
| author_browse | Paleker, Riaz Van Lill, Dawie |
| author_facet | Van Lill, Dawie Paleker, Riaz |
| author_sort | Paleker, Riaz |
| collection | Thesis |
| dc_rights_str_mv | Stellenbosch University |
| description | Thesis (MCom)--Stellenbosch University, 2025. |
| format | Thesis |
| id | oai:scholar.sun.ac.za:10019.1/134762 |
| institution | Stellenbosch University (South Africa) |
| last_indexed | 2026-06-10T12:43:08.148Z |
| license_str | Other — see source repository |
| provenance_str_mv | Harvested via OAI-PMH from SUNScholar — Stellenbosch University Repository |
| publishDate | 2026 |
| publishDateRange | 2026 |
| publishDateSort | 2026 |
| publisher | Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University |
| publisherStr | Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University |
| record_format | dspace |
| source_str | SUNScholar — Stellenbosch University Repository |
| spelling | oai:scholar.sun.ac.za:10019.1/134762 The effect of monetary policy on South Africa’s housing market : a Bayesian SVAR approach Paleker, Riaz Van Lill, Dawie Stellenbosch University. Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences. Dept. of Economics. Monetary policy -- South Africa Housing -- Prices -- South Africa Real estate business -- South Africa Housing -- Economic aspects -- South Africa Mortgage loans -- South Africa UCTD Thesis (MCom)--Stellenbosch University, 2025. Paleker, R. 2025. The Effect of Monetary Policy on South Africa’s Housing Market: A Bayesian SVAR Approach. Unpublished masters thesis. Stellenbosch: Stellenbosch University [online]. Available: https://scholar.sun.ac.za/items/50fb903c-0f1e-458a-bf35-9fffc647867c ENGLISH SUMMARY: This paper studies the dynamic relationship between monetary policy, the housing market, and key macroeconomic variables in South Africa between 2001 Q1 and 2023 Q4. A Bayesian Structural Vector Autoregression approach was used to compute the model. Two models were computed: a baseline model with exclusion restrictions and an alternative model only consisting of sign restrictions. The baseline model shows that a 1 percent contractionary monetary policy shock decreases real house prices by 0.8 percent. This response was also found to be persistent. In addition to this, a 1 percent real house price shock stimulated the economy as consumption increased by 0.5 percent. This produced evidence of the policy mechanism that operates through the housing system. The alternative model found relatively consistent results in terms of magnitudes; however, the persistence and timing of the responses were different. The alternative model found responses that were relatively less persistent. The Forecast Error Variance Decomposition emphasised the importance of monetary policy through South Africa’s housing market as the interbank rate caused almost 50 percent of the variation in real house prices. Furthermore, there is evidence that real house price shocks influence the variation in household credit. As a result, this document provides evidence of Mortgage Equity Withdrawal and, more importantly, highlights the role that MP can play in stimulating the macroeconomy through South Africa’s housing market. AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Geen opsomming beskikbaar. Masters 2026-01-07T07:54:46Z 2026-01-07T07:54:46Z 2025-12 Thesis https://scholar.sun.ac.za/handle/10019.1/134762 Stellenbosch University 44 pages : illustrations, includes annexures application/pdf Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University |
| spellingShingle | Monetary policy -- South Africa Housing -- Prices -- South Africa Real estate business -- South Africa Housing -- Economic aspects -- South Africa Mortgage loans -- South Africa UCTD Paleker, Riaz The effect of monetary policy on South Africa’s housing market : a Bayesian SVAR approach |
| title | The effect of monetary policy on South Africa’s housing market : a Bayesian SVAR approach |
| title_full | The effect of monetary policy on South Africa’s housing market : a Bayesian SVAR approach |
| title_fullStr | The effect of monetary policy on South Africa’s housing market : a Bayesian SVAR approach |
| title_full_unstemmed | The effect of monetary policy on South Africa’s housing market : a Bayesian SVAR approach |
| title_short | The effect of monetary policy on South Africa’s housing market : a Bayesian SVAR approach |
| title_sort | effect of monetary policy on south africa s housing market a bayesian svar approach |
| topic | Monetary policy -- South Africa Housing -- Prices -- South Africa Real estate business -- South Africa Housing -- Economic aspects -- South Africa Mortgage loans -- South Africa UCTD |
| url | https://scholar.sun.ac.za/handle/10019.1/134762 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT palekerriaz theeffectofmonetarypolicyonsouthafricashousingmarketabayesiansvarapproach AT palekerriaz effectofmonetarypolicyonsouthafricashousingmarketabayesiansvarapproach |