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The Long-Run Returns to Public Agricultural R&D in South Africa: Evidence from an Updated TFP Series (1950–2023)
Thesis (MSc)--Stellenbosch University, 2026.
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| Format: | Thesis |
| Language: | English |
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Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University
2026
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| _version_ | 1867614140289253376 |
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| access_status_str | Open Access |
| author | Molokoli, Poloko John |
| author2 | Greyling, Jan Christoffel |
| author_browse | Greyling, Jan Christoffel Molokoli, Poloko John |
| author_facet | Greyling, Jan Christoffel Molokoli, Poloko John |
| author_sort | Molokoli, Poloko John |
| collection | Thesis |
| dc_rights_str_mv | Stellenbosch University |
| description | Thesis (MSc)--Stellenbosch University, 2026. |
| format | Thesis |
| id | oai:scholar.sun.ac.za:10019.1/136158 |
| institution | Stellenbosch University (South Africa) |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2026-06-10T12:47:18.472Z |
| license_str | Other — see source repository |
| provenance_str_mv | Harvested via OAI-PMH from SUNScholar — Stellenbosch University Repository |
| publishDate | 2026 |
| publishDateRange | 2026 |
| publishDateSort | 2026 |
| publisher | Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University |
| publisherStr | Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University |
| record_format | dspace |
| source_str | SUNScholar — Stellenbosch University Repository |
| spelling | oai:scholar.sun.ac.za:10019.1/136158 The Long-Run Returns to Public Agricultural R&D in South Africa: Evidence from an Updated TFP Series (1950–2023) Molokoli, Poloko John Greyling, Jan Christoffel Stellenbosch University. Faculty of AgriSciences. Dept. of Agricultural Economics. Thesis (MSc)--Stellenbosch University, 2026. Molokoli, P. J. 2026. The Long-Run Returns to Public Agricultural R&D in South Africa: Evidence from an Updated TFP Series (1950–2023). Unpublished masters thesis. Stellenbosch: Stellenbosch University [online]. Available: https://scholar.sun.ac.za/items/feec0c08-945b-4f1e-91cd-42282d697999 Sustained growth in South African agriculture increasingly depends on productivity improvements rather than continued expansion of land, labour, and other inputs. This thesis updates and extends South Africa’s long-run agricultural total factor productivity (TFP) series and quantifies the long-run productivity returns to public agricultural research and development (R&D). The study addresses two questions: (i) how has national agricultural TFP evolved since 1950 once the canonical series is extended beyond 2010; and (ii) what are the long-run productivity effects and economic returns to public agricultural R&D when research benefits are modelled as delayed and persistent and weather variability is controlled for? To update productivity measurement, the thesis extends the Liebenberg (2012) national series to 2023 using a Törnqvist index-number approach to aggregate heterogeneous outputs and inputs into annual output and input indices, with TFP calculated as their ratio and normalised to 2020 = 100. The updated series indicates three broad phases: relative stagnation from 1950 to the early 1970s, a sharp productivity rise from the mid-1970s to a peak in the late 1980s, and a subsequent decline followed by stabilisation around the 2020 benchmark from the mid-2000s through 2023. To estimate the R&D–productivity relationship, public agricultural R&D expenditure is converted into an R&D knowledge stock constructed as a weighted sum of past spending using alternative truncated gamma lag distributions with a two-year gestation period. The long-run association between log TFP and log knowledge stocks is estimated within a cointegrating Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS) framework, controlling for weather variability using an Agricultural Weather Index derived from detrended national crop yields and allowing for alternative deterministic time controls (including a piecewise trend with a structural break in 1988). After econometric screening of 280 specifications, the best-performing models imply that the peak productivity effect of public R&D occurs roughly 11–14 years after expenditure. Estimated long-run elasticities of TFP with respect to the R&D knowledge stock range from 0.241 to 0.361 (median 0.299), and are robust across admissible lag specifications and trend controls. Elasticity estimates are translated into marginal benefit–cost ratios (BCRs) under alternative real discount rates. Across preferred specifications, BCRs remain well above one, ranging from 10.31 to 14.79 at a 3% discount rate and from 5.58 to 7.18 at an 8% discount rate. Overall, the results provide updated evidence that South African public agricultural R&D has generated substantial long-run productivity gains with delayed but persistent impacts, supporting the case for stable research investment as a central component of productivity-led and sustainable agricultural growth. Masters 2026-04-23T13:14:33Z 2026-04-23T13:14:33Z 2026-03 Thesis https://scholar.sun.ac.za/handle/10019.1/136158 en Stellenbosch University 54 pages application/pdf Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University |
| spellingShingle | Molokoli, Poloko John The Long-Run Returns to Public Agricultural R&D in South Africa: Evidence from an Updated TFP Series (1950–2023) |
| title | The Long-Run Returns to Public Agricultural R&D in South Africa: Evidence from an Updated TFP Series (1950–2023) |
| title_full | The Long-Run Returns to Public Agricultural R&D in South Africa: Evidence from an Updated TFP Series (1950–2023) |
| title_fullStr | The Long-Run Returns to Public Agricultural R&D in South Africa: Evidence from an Updated TFP Series (1950–2023) |
| title_full_unstemmed | The Long-Run Returns to Public Agricultural R&D in South Africa: Evidence from an Updated TFP Series (1950–2023) |
| title_short | The Long-Run Returns to Public Agricultural R&D in South Africa: Evidence from an Updated TFP Series (1950–2023) |
| title_sort | long run returns to public agricultural r d in south africa evidence from an updated tfp series 1950 2023 |
| url | https://scholar.sun.ac.za/handle/10019.1/136158 |
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