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Measuring Institutional Conflict: An Empirical Analysis of Formal–Informal Institutional Interactions and COVID-19 Policy Outcomes
Thesis (MCom)--Stellenbosch University, 2026.
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| Format: | Thesis |
| Language: | English |
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Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University
2026
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| _version_ | 1867613904831512576 |
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| access_status_str | Open Access |
| author | Marais, Amy |
| author2 | Siebrits, Kriege |
| author_browse | Marais, Amy Siebrits, Kriege |
| author_facet | Siebrits, Kriege Marais, Amy |
| author_sort | Marais, Amy |
| collection | Thesis |
| dc_rights_str_mv | Stellenbosch University |
| description | Thesis (MCom)--Stellenbosch University, 2026. |
| format | Thesis |
| id | oai:scholar.sun.ac.za:10019.1/136260 |
| institution | Stellenbosch University (South Africa) |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2026-06-10T12:43:33.723Z |
| license_str | Other — see source repository |
| provenance_str_mv | Harvested via OAI-PMH from SUNScholar — Stellenbosch University Repository |
| publishDate | 2026 |
| publishDateRange | 2026 |
| publishDateSort | 2026 |
| publisher | Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University |
| publisherStr | Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University |
| record_format | dspace |
| source_str | SUNScholar — Stellenbosch University Repository |
| spelling | oai:scholar.sun.ac.za:10019.1/136260 Measuring Institutional Conflict: An Empirical Analysis of Formal–Informal Institutional Interactions and COVID-19 Policy Outcomes Marais, Amy Siebrits, Kriege Stellenbosch University. Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences. Dept. of Economics. Thesis (MCom)--Stellenbosch University, 2026. Marais, A. 2026. Measuring Institutional Conflict: An Empirical Analysis of Formal–Informal Institutional Interactions and COVID-19 Policy Outcomes. Unpublished masters thesis. Stellenbosch: Stellenbosch University [online]. Available: https://scholar.sun.ac.za/items/65bb804e-91dd-48e6-b0f2-112d1b610c66 The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in striking cross-country variations in policy outcomes despite the widespread adoption of broadly similar formal public health measures such as including lockdowns, mask mandates, and vaccination campaigns. While some countries experienced relatively low excess mortality, others recorded severe health and mortality consequences. This divergence raises a fundamental question within New Institutional Economics (NIE): can differences in the interaction between formal and informal institutions explain part of the variation in policy effectiveness during crisis conditions? This thesis investigates whether the interaction between formal COVID-19 policies and prevailing informal institutions can explain part of the variation in pandemic outcomes across countries, as measured by cumulative excess deaths per million people. Drawing on the theoretical foundations of Pejovich’s Interaction Thesis, Voigt’s typology of institutional relationships, and Helmke and Levitsky’s framework of institutional interactions, this thesis conceptualises institutional effectiveness as contingent upon the compatibility between codified rules and embedded social norms. When formal rules align with informal institutions, compliance is enhanced and transaction costs are reduced. Conversely, institutional conflict increases enforcement costs and undermines policy implementation. To empirically test this hypothesis, this thesis constructs a novel proxy variable termed the “Degree of Conflict,” derived from twelve selected items in Wave 7 of the World Values Survey. These items capture attitudes toward authority, institutional trust, corruption, moral hierarchy, and confidence in public institutions, including government and the World Health Organisation. Using polychoric correlation analysis and exploratory factor analysis with promax rotation, the index is validated as a multidimensional construct reflecting two correlated latent dimensions: distrust in public institutions and hierarchical moral worldview. The composite index serves as a quantitative proxy for the interaction between informal norms and formal pandemic policies. The empirical analysis uses cross-sectional Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression models across a sample of sixty countries. The dependent variable is the logarithm of cumulative excess mortality per million people. A stepwise modelling approach introduces demographic, health, economic, and governance controls, including median age, cardiovascular death rates, inequality (Gini coefficient), population density, vaccinations per capita, government efficiency, pre-pandemic mortality, and GDP per capita. Robustness tests, including diagnostics for heteroskedasticity, multicollinearity, model specification, and influential observations, are conducted to ensure the reliability of results. The findings indicate that higher levels of institutional conflict are associated with significantly worse pandemic outcomes, even after controlling for economic and demographic factors. The Degree of Conflict variable remains statistically significant across model specifications, suggesting that institutional conflict was an independent determinant of pandemic management effectiveness. This thesis demonstrates that the conflict between formal and informal institutions plays a measurable role in shaping policy outcomes, particularly during periods of crisis. By providing a replicable quantitative framework for analysing institutional conflict, this thesis advances the empirical testing of the interaction thesis within current public policy contexts. Masters 2026-04-30T06:47:34Z 2026-04-30T06:47:34Z 2026-03 Thesis https://scholar.sun.ac.za/handle/10019.1/136260 en Stellenbosch University 48 pages application/pdf Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University |
| spellingShingle | Marais, Amy Measuring Institutional Conflict: An Empirical Analysis of Formal–Informal Institutional Interactions and COVID-19 Policy Outcomes |
| title | Measuring Institutional Conflict: An Empirical Analysis of Formal–Informal Institutional Interactions and COVID-19 Policy Outcomes |
| title_full | Measuring Institutional Conflict: An Empirical Analysis of Formal–Informal Institutional Interactions and COVID-19 Policy Outcomes |
| title_fullStr | Measuring Institutional Conflict: An Empirical Analysis of Formal–Informal Institutional Interactions and COVID-19 Policy Outcomes |
| title_full_unstemmed | Measuring Institutional Conflict: An Empirical Analysis of Formal–Informal Institutional Interactions and COVID-19 Policy Outcomes |
| title_short | Measuring Institutional Conflict: An Empirical Analysis of Formal–Informal Institutional Interactions and COVID-19 Policy Outcomes |
| title_sort | measuring institutional conflict an empirical analysis of formal informal institutional interactions and covid 19 policy outcomes |
| url | https://scholar.sun.ac.za/handle/10019.1/136260 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT maraisamy measuringinstitutionalconflictanempiricalanalysisofformalinformalinstitutionalinteractionsandcovid19policyoutcomes |