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Extreme rainfall distributions : analysing change in the Western Cape
Thesis (MSc)--Stellenbosch University, 2012.
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| Format: | Thesis |
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Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University
2012
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| _version_ | 1867613834922950656 |
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| access_status_str | Open Access |
| author | De Waal, Jan Hofmeyr |
| author2 | Kemp, J. N. |
| author_browse | De Waal, Jan Hofmeyr Kemp, J. N. |
| author_facet | Kemp, J. N. De Waal, Jan Hofmeyr |
| author_sort | De Waal, Jan Hofmeyr |
| collection | Thesis |
| dc_rights_str_mv | Stellenbosch University |
| description | Thesis (MSc)--Stellenbosch University, 2012. |
| format | Thesis |
| id | oai:scholar.sun.ac.za:10019.1/71654 |
| institution | Stellenbosch University (South Africa) |
| last_indexed | 2026-06-10T12:42:26.594Z |
| license_str | Other — see source repository |
| provenance_str_mv | Harvested via OAI-PMH from SUNScholar — Stellenbosch University Repository |
| publishDate | 2012 |
| publishDateRange | 2012 |
| publishDateSort | 2012 |
| publisher | Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University |
| publisherStr | Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University |
| record_format | dspace |
| source_str | SUNScholar — Stellenbosch University Repository |
| spelling | oai:scholar.sun.ac.za:10019.1/71654 Extreme rainfall distributions : analysing change in the Western Cape De Waal, Jan Hofmeyr Kemp, J. N. Chapman, A. Stellenbosch University. Faculty of Science. Dept. of Geography and Environmental Studies. Rain and rainfall -- South Africa -- Western Cape Climatic extremes -- South Africa -- Western Cape Climatic changes -- South Africa -- Western Cape Floods -- South Africa -- Western Cape Dissertations -- Geography and environmental studies Theses -- Geography and environmental studies Thesis (MSc)--Stellenbosch University, 2012. Severe floods in the Western Cape have caused significant damage to hydraulic structures, roads and other infrastructure over the past decade. The current design criteria for these structures and flood return level calculations are based on the concept of stationarity, which assumes that natural systems vary within an envelope of variability that does not change with time. In the context of regional climate change and projected changes in rainfall intensity, the basis for these calculations may become unrealistic with the passage of time. Hydraulic structures and other infrastructure may become more vulnerable to damaging floods because of changing hydroclimatic conditions. This project assesses the changes in extreme rainfall values over time across the Western Cape, South Africa. Using a Generalised Pareto Distribution, this study examines the changes in return levels across the Western Cape region for the periods 1900-1954 and 1955-2010. Of the 137 rainfall stations used in this research, 85 (62%) showed an increase in 50-year return level, 30 (22%) a decrease in 50-year return level and 22 (16%) stations displayed little change in rainfall intensity over time. While there were no clear spatial patterns to the results, they clearly indicate an increase in frequency of intense rainfalls in the latter half of the 20th and early 21st century. The changes in return level are also accompanied by a change in the frequency of high intensity 2-3 day long storms. 115 (84%) of the 137 rainfall stations showed an increase in the frequency of long duration, high intensity storms over the data record. This change generates a shifting risk profile of extreme rainfalls, which, in turn, creates challenges for the design of hydraulic structures and any infrastructure exposed to the resulting damaging floods. It can therefore be argued that it is inappropriate to design structures or manage water resources assuming stationarity of climate and that these principles should be assessed in order to reduce the risk of flood damage owing to increasing storm intensity. KEY WORDS Flood Risk, Stationarity, Disaster Risk, Hazard, Extreme Rainfall, Generalized Pareto Distribution, Climate Masters 2012-11-23T10:53:57Z 2012-12-12T08:08:20Z 2012-11-23T10:53:57Z 2012-12-12T08:08:20Z 2012-12 Thesis http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/71654 Stellenbosch University 101 p. : ill., maps application/pdf Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University |
| spellingShingle | Rain and rainfall -- South Africa -- Western Cape Climatic extremes -- South Africa -- Western Cape Climatic changes -- South Africa -- Western Cape Floods -- South Africa -- Western Cape Dissertations -- Geography and environmental studies Theses -- Geography and environmental studies De Waal, Jan Hofmeyr Extreme rainfall distributions : analysing change in the Western Cape |
| title | Extreme rainfall distributions : analysing change in the Western Cape |
| title_full | Extreme rainfall distributions : analysing change in the Western Cape |
| title_fullStr | Extreme rainfall distributions : analysing change in the Western Cape |
| title_full_unstemmed | Extreme rainfall distributions : analysing change in the Western Cape |
| title_short | Extreme rainfall distributions : analysing change in the Western Cape |
| title_sort | extreme rainfall distributions analysing change in the western cape |
| topic | Rain and rainfall -- South Africa -- Western Cape Climatic extremes -- South Africa -- Western Cape Climatic changes -- South Africa -- Western Cape Floods -- South Africa -- Western Cape Dissertations -- Geography and environmental studies Theses -- Geography and environmental studies |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/71654 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT dewaaljanhofmeyr extremerainfalldistributionsanalysingchangeinthewesterncape |