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Modelling the financial vulnerability of farming systems to climate change in selected case study areas in South Africa
Thesis (PhD)--Stellenbosch University, 2014.
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| Format: | Thesis |
| Language: | en_ZA |
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Stellenbosch: Stellenbosch University
2015
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| _version_ | 1867613757745659904 |
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| access_status_str | Open Access |
| author | Oosthuizen, Hamman Jacobus |
| author2 | Lombard, Johannes Petrus |
| author_browse | Lombard, Johannes Petrus Oosthuizen, Hamman Jacobus |
| author_facet | Lombard, Johannes Petrus Oosthuizen, Hamman Jacobus |
| author_sort | Oosthuizen, Hamman Jacobus |
| collection | Thesis |
| dc_rights_str_mv | Stellenbosch University |
| description | Thesis (PhD)--Stellenbosch University, 2014. |
| format | Thesis |
| id | oai:scholar.sun.ac.za:10019.1/95831 |
| institution | Stellenbosch University (South Africa) |
| language | en_ZA |
| last_indexed | 2026-06-10T12:41:12.661Z |
| license_str | Other — see source repository |
| provenance_str_mv | Harvested via OAI-PMH from SUNScholar — Stellenbosch University Repository |
| publishDate | 2015 |
| publishDateRange | 2015 |
| publishDateSort | 2015 |
| publisher | Stellenbosch: Stellenbosch University |
| publisherStr | Stellenbosch: Stellenbosch University |
| record_format | dspace |
| source_str | SUNScholar — Stellenbosch University Repository |
| spelling | oai:scholar.sun.ac.za:10019.1/95831 Modelling the financial vulnerability of farming systems to climate change in selected case study areas in South Africa Oosthuizen, Hamman Jacobus Lombard, Johannes Petrus Louw, Daniel Barend Stellenbosch University. Faculty of AgriSciences. Dept. of Agricultural Economics. Agriculture -- Environmental aspects Crops and climate -- South Africa Climatic changes -- South Africa Theses -- Agricultural economics Dissertations -- Agricultural economics UCTD Thesis (PhD)--Stellenbosch University, 2014. ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Numerous studies indicate that the agricultural sector is physically and economically vulnerable to climate change. In order to determine possible impacts of projected future climates on the financial vulnerability of selective farming systems in South Africa, a case study methodology was applied. The integrated modelling framework consists of four modules, viz.: climate change impact modelling, dynamic linear programming (DLP) modelling, modelling interphases and financial vulnerability assessment modelling. Empirically downscaled climate data from five global climate models (GCMs) served as base for the integrated modelling. The APSIM crop model was applied to determine the impact of projected climates on crop yield for certain crops in the study. In order to determine the impact of projected climates on crops for which there are no crop models available, a unique modelling technique, Critical Crop Climate Threshold (CCCT) modelling, was developed and applied to model the impact of projected climate change on yield and quality of agricultural produce. Climate change impact modelling also takes into account the projected changes in irrigation water availability (ACRU hydrological model) and crop irrigation requirements (SAPWAT3 model) as a result of projected climate change. The model produces a set of valuable results, viz. projected changes in crop yield and quality, projected changes in availability of irrigation water, projected changes in crop irrigation needs, optimal combination of farming activities to maximize net cash flow, and a set of financial criteria to determine economic viability and financial feasibility of the farming system. A set of financial criteria; i.e. internal rate of return (IRR), net present value (NPV), cash flow ratio, highest debt ratio, and highest debt have been employed to measure the impact of climate change on the financial vulnerability of farming systems. Adaptation strategies to lessen the impact of climate change were identified for each case study through expert group discussions, and included in the integrated modelling as alternative options in the DLP model. This aims at addressing the gap in climate change research, i.e. integrated economic modelling at farm level; thereby making a contribution to integrated climate change modelling. AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die fisiese sowel as ekonomiese kwesbaarheid van die landbousektor as gevolg van klimaatverandering word deur verskeie studies beklemtoon. ‘n Gevallestudie-benadering is gebruik ten einde die potensiële impak van klimaatsverandering op die finansiële kwesbaarheid van verskillende boerderystelsels te bepaal. Die geïntegreerde klimaatsveranderingmodel bestaan uit vier modelleringsmodules, naamlik: klimaatsverandering, dinamiese liniêre programmering (DLP), interfases en finansiële-kwesbaarheidsontleding. Empiries afgeskaalde klimatologiese data van vyf verskillende klimaatmodelle dien as basis vir die geïntegreerde klimaatsveranderingmodel. Die APSIM gewas-model word aangewend om die impak van klimaatsverandering op gewasse-opbrengs te bepaal. Vir sekere gewasse is daar egter nie modelle beskikbaaar nie en het gevolglik die ontwikkeling van ‘n nuwe model genoodsaak. Die Kritiese Gewasse Klimaatsdrempelwaarde (KGKD) modelleringstegniek is ontwikkel ten einde die impak van klimaatsverandering op die opbrengs en kwaliteit van gewasse te kwantifiseer. Die geïntegreerde klimaatsveranderingmodel neem ook die verwagte verandering in besproeiingswaterbeskikbaarheid (ACRU-hidrologiemodel) en gewas-besproeiingsbehoeftes (SAPWAT3-model) as gevolg van klimaatsverandering in ag. Die model lewer waardevolle resultate op, naamlik: geprojekteerde veranderinge in gewasse-opbrengs en -kwaliteit, geprojekteerde verandering in beskikbaarheid van besproeiingswater en gewasse-besproeiingsbehoeftes, die optimale kombinering van boerdery-aktiwiteite om netto kontantvloei te maksimeer, asook ‘n stel finansiële resultate wat die impak van klimaatsverandering kwantifiseer. Die finansiële kriteria sluit in: interne opbrengskoers, netto huidige waarde, kontanvloeiverhouding, hoogste skuldverhouding en hoogste skuldvlak. Deur middel van deskundige-groepbesprekings is aanpassingstrategieë vir elk van die gevallestudies geïdentifiseer en by die geïntegreerde model ingesluit as alternatiewe opsies in die DLP-model. Die studie poog om die gaping in die huidige klimaatsveranderingnavorsing met betekking tot ‘n geïntegreerde ekonomiese model op plaasvlak aan te spreek en sodoende ‘n bydrae tot geïntegreerde klimaatveranderingmodellering te maak. Doctoral 2015-01-13T11:47:31Z 2015-01-13T11:47:31Z 2014-12 Thesis http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/95831 en_ZA Stellenbosch University 231 p. : ill., maps application/pdf Stellenbosch: Stellenbosch University |
| spellingShingle | Agriculture -- Environmental aspects Crops and climate -- South Africa Climatic changes -- South Africa Theses -- Agricultural economics Dissertations -- Agricultural economics UCTD Oosthuizen, Hamman Jacobus Modelling the financial vulnerability of farming systems to climate change in selected case study areas in South Africa |
| title | Modelling the financial vulnerability of farming systems to climate change in selected case study areas in South Africa |
| title_full | Modelling the financial vulnerability of farming systems to climate change in selected case study areas in South Africa |
| title_fullStr | Modelling the financial vulnerability of farming systems to climate change in selected case study areas in South Africa |
| title_full_unstemmed | Modelling the financial vulnerability of farming systems to climate change in selected case study areas in South Africa |
| title_short | Modelling the financial vulnerability of farming systems to climate change in selected case study areas in South Africa |
| title_sort | modelling the financial vulnerability of farming systems to climate change in selected case study areas in south africa |
| topic | Agriculture -- Environmental aspects Crops and climate -- South Africa Climatic changes -- South Africa Theses -- Agricultural economics Dissertations -- Agricultural economics UCTD |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/95831 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT oosthuizenhammanjacobus modellingthefinancialvulnerabilityoffarmingsystemstoclimatechangeinselectedcasestudyareasinsouthafrica |