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A risk-reliability comparison of track sections in the passenger railway industry
Thesis (MSc)--Stellenbosch University, 2015.
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| Format: | Thesis |
| Language: | en_ZA |
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Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University
2015
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| _version_ | 1867613786864615424 |
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| access_status_str | Open Access |
| author | Mc Naught, M. D. |
| author2 | Fourie, C. J. |
| author_browse | Fourie, C. J. Mc Naught, M. D. |
| author_facet | Fourie, C. J. Mc Naught, M. D. |
| author_sort | Mc Naught, M. D. |
| collection | Thesis |
| dc_rights_str_mv | Stellenbosch University |
| description | Thesis (MSc)--Stellenbosch University, 2015. |
| format | Thesis |
| id | oai:scholar.sun.ac.za:10019.1/97871 |
| institution | Stellenbosch University (South Africa) |
| language | en_ZA |
| last_indexed | 2026-06-10T12:41:41.074Z |
| license_str | Other — see source repository |
| provenance_str_mv | Harvested via OAI-PMH from SUNScholar — Stellenbosch University Repository |
| publishDate | 2015 |
| publishDateRange | 2015 |
| publishDateSort | 2015 |
| publisher | Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University |
| publisherStr | Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University |
| record_format | dspace |
| source_str | SUNScholar — Stellenbosch University Repository |
| spelling | oai:scholar.sun.ac.za:10019.1/97871 A risk-reliability comparison of track sections in the passenger railway industry Mc Naught, M. D. Fourie, C. J. Von Leipzig, Konrad Stellenbosch University. Faculty of Engineering. Dept. of Industrial Engineering. Railway industry -- Maintenance Railway track reliability Perway (section of railway track) -- Maintenance prioritisation UCTD Thesis (MSc)--Stellenbosch University, 2015. ENGLISH ABSTRACT: In chaotic maintenance environments, executing planned maintenance becomes difficult because the need for immediate corrective action escalates. Reverting back from a poor system state to a stable and well maintained one is a challenge. Railway track environments are prone to system degradation and poor maintenance. They are, therefore, in need of analytical tools to 'get on track' with maintenance. A risk-based method which grades track corridors between train stations according to their level of risk was developed. To achieve this, both the likelihood and the severity components of risk were considered. The likelihood component of risk in the track environment is the reliability of track. Reliability was calculated by quantifying track failure modes first and then analysing the characteristics of failures for each track corridor. Probabilistic models were generated from repairable systems reliability theory from which reliability predictions were made. The severity component of risk is the average delay historically experienced by each track corridor. A risk matrix was developed which brings together likelihood and severity components of risk for each track corridor. Maintenance prioritisation is possible from the risk rankings created by the matrix. The risk rankings for five track corridors were validated when a condition-based track maintenance tool, TQI, was in agreement. AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: In die chaotiese instandhoudingsomgewing is dit moeilik om beplande onderhoud uit te voer, aangesien die nodigheid vir onmiddellike regstellende aksie toeneem. Om terug te keer van 'n swak stelsel na 'n stabiele en goed instandgehoue stelsel is 'n uitdaging. Spoorweg-omgewings is geneig tot stelselagteruitgang en swak instandhouding. Daar is dus 'n behoefte aan analitiese metodes om weer op die regte skedule te begin volg met instandhouding. 'n Risiko-gebaseerde metode wat spoorweë tussen stasies gradeer volgens hulle risiko is ontwikkel. Om dit reg te kry, is beide die waarskynlikheid en die graad van erns van risiko's in ag geneem. Die waarskynlikheid van risiko in die spoor-omgewing is die betroubaarheid van die spoor. Betroubaarheid wordbereken deur eerstens die hoeveelheid spoorfalings te bepaal en dan die kenmerke van die falings vir elke spoorweg te analiseer. Waarskynlikheidsmodelle is opgestel van herstelbare stelsels betroubaarheidsteorie van waar betroubaarheidsvoorspellings gemaak is. Die graad van erns van risiko's is die gemiddelde vertraging wat histories deur elke spoorweg ondervind is. 'n Risiko-matriks wat die waarskynlikheid en graad van erns van risiko's kombineer is vir elke spoorweg ontwikkel. Instandhoudings-prioritisering word moontlik gemaak deur die risiko-graderings volgens die matriks. Die risiko-graderings vir vyf-spoor spoorweë is bevestig toe 'n voorwaarde-gebaseerde instandhoudingsprogram, TQI, eenparigheid bereik het. 2015-12-14T07:42:54Z 2015-12-14T07:42:54Z 2015-12 Thesis http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/97871 en_ZA Stellenbosch University 172 pages : illustrations application/pdf Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University |
| spellingShingle | Railway industry -- Maintenance Railway track reliability Perway (section of railway track) -- Maintenance prioritisation UCTD Mc Naught, M. D. A risk-reliability comparison of track sections in the passenger railway industry |
| title | A risk-reliability comparison of track sections in the passenger railway industry |
| title_full | A risk-reliability comparison of track sections in the passenger railway industry |
| title_fullStr | A risk-reliability comparison of track sections in the passenger railway industry |
| title_full_unstemmed | A risk-reliability comparison of track sections in the passenger railway industry |
| title_short | A risk-reliability comparison of track sections in the passenger railway industry |
| title_sort | risk reliability comparison of track sections in the passenger railway industry |
| topic | Railway industry -- Maintenance Railway track reliability Perway (section of railway track) -- Maintenance prioritisation UCTD |
| url | http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/97871 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT mcnaughtmd ariskreliabilitycomparisonoftracksectionsinthepassengerrailwayindustry AT mcnaughtmd riskreliabilitycomparisonoftracksectionsinthepassengerrailwayindustry |